Bayesian Reasoning

Unsure if what you’ve witnessed aligns with fascist behavior? Doubting your own judgment? Struggling to connect a series of events to a clear conclusion?

With this calculator, you can apply Bayes’ Theorem to assess events collectively and compare how likely they are to be done by a fascist or non-fascist. See probabilities together and let Bayes refine your perspective!

Prior: Your initial belief about them being a fascist.

50%

Event

Likelihood a fascist would do it.

Likelihood a non-fascist would do it

Allegedly endorsing great-replacement.

50%

Possibly having an alter ego that calls self a Fren on 4chan?

50%

Awkware gesture resembling a Roman Salute.

50%

Holocaust jokes after the awkward gesture.

50%

Speaking at AfD event urging to move past 'Nazi guilt'.

50%

Taking over the treasury as an un-elected / un-confirmed individual.

50%

Posterior (Likelihood your reasoning suggests fascism): 50%

Understanding Bayes' Theorem and Applying It to Thought

Bayes' Theorem helps us update our beliefs based on new evidence. Here's how it works:

Start with prior beliefs: What you initially think is true.
Add new evidence: Evaluate new information.
Update probabilities: Adjust your beliefs based on how likely the evidence is if your belief is true or false.

We can apply this to critical thinking. For example, when evaluating actions or events, ask yourself:

"Do I think a fascist would do this?"
"Do I think someone who is not a fascist would do this?"

This approach helps contextualize actions and align them with broader patterns, avoiding the trap of evaluating things in isolation.

However, it’s important to note: if your prior belief is set at 1 (absolute certainty) or 0 (absolute impossibility), you are unlikely to let any new information change your mind. This rigid thinking can prevent you from adapting to new evidence and understanding the bigger picture.

In an era of misinformation, where we're often told to doubt our own perceptions, this method empowers us to integrate new evidence into our understanding and see the bigger picture.